Porzućmy wszelką nadzieję?

Według wieloletnich szacunków wzrostu gospodarczego, przygotowywanych przez Organizację Współpracy Gospodarczej i Rozwoju (ostatnia pochodzi z lipca 2018 r.), potencjalny średnioroczny wzrost produktu krajowego brutto na mieszkańca w latach 2030-2060 ma wynieść w Polsce jedynie 1,3 proc.


To najsłabszy wynik nie tylko w UE, ale także w całym OECD. Jest to także drugi, poza Rosją – 1,2 proc. – najgorszy rezultat wśród wszystkich 46 badanych krajów. Bardzo niski wzrost przez trzy dekady oznacza, że możemy zapomnieć o dogonieniu jakiejkolwiek rozwiniętej gospodarki.
Nasz relatywny poziom zamożności mierzony PKB wyrażonym w sile nabywczej w relacji do USA praktycznie utrzyma się na podobnym poziomie, co obecnie (wzrost z 50 do 54 proc. w 2060 r.) – wskazuje portal Cinkciarz.pl. W klasyfikacji PKB na mieszkańca, w relacji do poziomu w Stanach Zjednoczonych, wyprzedzą nas wszystkie kraje regionu: Węgry – 60 proc., Słowenia – 62 proc. Słowacja – 79 proc. oraz Czechy – 77 proc. Po piętach deptać nam natomiast będą Chiny – 51 proc. oraz Indie – 44 proc.
Badania OECD wskazują, że największym problemem Polski będzie rynek pracy. Poziom zatrudnienia ma spadać o 0,2 proc. każdego roku w latach 2030-2060 (najwięcej ze wszystkich państw). Przede wszystkim jest to efekt demografii, czyli starzejącego się społeczeństwa. Problemy demograficzne obejmują jednak także inne kraje. U nas jednak, populacja w wieku produkcyjnym, w związku z wprowadzeniem niższego wieku emerytalnego zmniejszy się aż o 10 pkt proc. do 2050 r. Negatywnie na podaż siły roboczej od 2030 r. zacznie także wpływać podniesienie wieku rozpoczęcia obowiązku szkolnego.
Jak wskazuje OECD, dzietności lepiej sprzyja zastępowanie świadczeń pieniężnych świadczeniami rzeczowymi dla rodzin (np. darmowe przedszkole, żłobek), co pozwala na łatwiejszy powrót kobiet do pracy i redukuje ryzyko erozji ich umiejętności. Ponadto, wydatki na zdrowie w Polsce są drugimi najmniejszymi wśród badanych krajów, co redukuje chęć pozostawania starszych roczników na rynku pracy i zmniejsza ogólną jakość życia. Wreszcie, niewystarczający jest u nas poziom wydatków na badania i rozwój. Dziś dobra koniunktura zewnętrzna, napływ imigrantów ze wschodu czy uszczelnienie systemu podatkowego dają krótkoterminowe wytchnienie. W dłuższym terminie słabości naszej gospodarki trudno jednak będzie „łatać” doraźnymi działaniami.

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