Porzućmy wszelką nadzieję?

Według wieloletnich szacunków wzrostu gospodarczego, przygotowywanych przez Organizację Współpracy Gospodarczej i Rozwoju (ostatnia pochodzi z lipca 2018 r.), potencjalny średnioroczny wzrost produktu krajowego brutto na mieszkańca w latach 2030-2060 ma wynieść w Polsce jedynie 1,3 proc.

 

To najsłabszy wynik nie tylko w UE, ale także w całym OECD. Jest to także drugi, poza Rosją – 1,2 proc. – najgorszy rezultat wśród wszystkich 46 badanych krajów. Bardzo niski wzrost przez trzy dekady oznacza, że możemy zapomnieć o dogonieniu jakiejkolwiek rozwiniętej gospodarki.
Nasz relatywny poziom zamożności mierzony PKB wyrażonym w sile nabywczej w relacji do USA praktycznie utrzyma się na podobnym poziomie, co obecnie (wzrost z 50 do 54 proc. w 2060 r.) – wskazuje portal Cinkciarz.pl. W klasyfikacji PKB na mieszkańca, w relacji do poziomu w Stanach Zjednoczonych, wyprzedzą nas wszystkie kraje regionu: Węgry – 60 proc., Słowenia – 62 proc. Słowacja – 79 proc. oraz Czechy – 77 proc. Po piętach deptać nam natomiast będą Chiny – 51 proc. oraz Indie – 44 proc.
Badania OECD wskazują, że największym problemem Polski będzie rynek pracy. Poziom zatrudnienia ma spadać o 0,2 proc. każdego roku w latach 2030-2060 (najwięcej ze wszystkich państw). Przede wszystkim jest to efekt demografii, czyli starzejącego się społeczeństwa. Problemy demograficzne obejmują jednak także inne kraje. U nas jednak, populacja w wieku produkcyjnym, w związku z wprowadzeniem niższego wieku emerytalnego zmniejszy się aż o 10 pkt proc. do 2050 r. Negatywnie na podaż siły roboczej od 2030 r. zacznie także wpływać podniesienie wieku rozpoczęcia obowiązku szkolnego.
Jak wskazuje OECD, dzietności lepiej sprzyja zastępowanie świadczeń pieniężnych świadczeniami rzeczowymi dla rodzin (np. darmowe przedszkole, żłobek), co pozwala na łatwiejszy powrót kobiet do pracy i redukuje ryzyko erozji ich umiejętności. Ponadto, wydatki na zdrowie w Polsce są drugimi najmniejszymi wśród badanych krajów, co redukuje chęć pozostawania starszych roczników na rynku pracy i zmniejsza ogólną jakość życia. Wreszcie, niewystarczający jest u nas poziom wydatków na badania i rozwój. Dziś dobra koniunktura zewnętrzna, napływ imigrantów ze wschodu czy uszczelnienie systemu podatkowego dają krótkoterminowe wytchnienie. W dłuższym terminie słabości naszej gospodarki trudno jednak będzie „łatać” doraźnymi działaniami.

24 thoughts on “Porzućmy wszelką nadzieję?”

  1. I want to convey my passion for your kindness for men who really need help with this one subject. Your very own dedication to passing the message all-around has been unbelievably functional and have usually permitted ladies just like me to attain their endeavors. Your own warm and friendly guidelines entails this much a person like me and extremely more to my office colleagues. Many thanks; from all of us.

  2. Needed to compose you the bit of observation so as to say thank you yet again for your personal extraordinary basics you’ve documented in this article. It’s certainly wonderfully generous with you to deliver openly all that a few people could have supplied as an e book to end up making some dough for themselves, primarily since you might have tried it in case you considered necessary. The ideas also worked to become great way to be sure that someone else have the same dreams similar to mine to know a great deal more when it comes to this issue. I am sure there are numerous more enjoyable moments up front for people who discover your site.

  3. My spouse and i felt really joyful Edward could carry out his survey using the precious recommendations he obtained from your own weblog. It’s not at all simplistic to just continually be giving out tips which often some people could have been trying to sell. So we remember we have got the website owner to thank for this. The entire illustrations you have made, the simple site menu, the friendships your site make it easier to foster – it’s most excellent, and it’s helping our son and us recognize that this theme is amusing, which is certainly particularly important. Thank you for everything!

  4. Thank you a lot for giving everyone a very remarkable possiblity to read articles and blog posts from this site. It is often very amazing and as well , stuffed with amusement for me and my office acquaintances to search your web site at the very least thrice per week to study the latest stuff you have. Not to mention, we are actually happy with your breathtaking thoughts you serve. Certain 2 areas in this article are absolutely the most beneficial we have had.

  5. I would like to express my appreciation to you just for bailing me out of this crisis. Just after surfing around throughout the the web and finding solutions that were not productive, I was thinking my life was gone. Living devoid of the answers to the difficulties you’ve fixed all through your posting is a crucial case, as well as ones that could have adversely damaged my career if I had not encountered your web blog. Your primary expertise and kindness in playing with every part was helpful. I’m not sure what I would’ve done if I hadn’t come across such a point like this. I can at this moment relish my future. Thanks for your time so much for the high quality and sensible help. I will not hesitate to propose your site to any individual who would like support about this problem.

  6. I needed to compose you one very little note just to say thanks the moment again over the awesome tips you have featured above. This is really particularly open-handed of you to provide without restraint exactly what a lot of folks would’ve distributed as an e-book to end up making some bucks for themselves, primarily considering that you could have done it if you ever decided. The things as well served as the great way to fully grasp that the rest have the identical desire the same as my very own to learn a lot more when considering this issue. I am certain there are thousands of more enjoyable sessions up front for those who looked over your website.

  7. Pingback: air max 90
  8. I and my pals have been looking through the great points on the website and so all of the sudden got a horrible suspicion I never thanked the website owner for those strategies. My young boys appeared to be so warmed to learn them and already have extremely been loving these things. Appreciate your genuinely so thoughtful and then for choosing this sort of impressive topics millions of individuals are really wanting to understand about. My personal sincere apologies for not saying thanks to sooner.

  9. I needed to send you one very small word in order to thank you again for those wonderful ideas you’ve shown in this case. It has been so seriously generous with people like you to supply unreservedly precisely what some people might have distributed as an e book to end up making some profit for their own end, chiefly seeing that you might well have done it if you desired. These techniques additionally served as a great way to be aware that other people online have a similar dream the same as my very own to realize somewhat more on the subject of this condition. I think there are thousands of more pleasurable times up front for those who examine your website.

  10. I have to show my thanks to the writer just for bailing me out of such a condition. Just after looking through the internet and coming across basics which were not productive, I figured my entire life was gone. Being alive devoid of the approaches to the difficulties you’ve solved all through your good guide is a crucial case, and the ones that would have in a negative way affected my entire career if I had not encountered your web blog. Your own skills and kindness in dealing with all the stuff was vital. I don’t know what I would’ve done if I had not come across such a thing like this. I can also now look ahead to my future. Thanks for your time very much for this expert and result oriented guide. I will not think twice to suggest the blog to anyone who should receive counselling on this topic.

  11. Pingback: yeezy 500
  12. I really wanted to type a brief note to be able to express gratitude to you for all the amazing techniques you are sharing on this website. My extensive internet research has finally been recognized with professional details to write about with my neighbours. I would declare that we visitors actually are very much lucky to live in a magnificent site with very many wonderful people with useful points. I feel somewhat privileged to have seen the web site and look forward to some more fabulous times reading here. Thanks a lot again for everything.

  13. A lot of thanks for your own effort on this web page. My mum really likes doing investigation and it’s really easy to understand why. A lot of people know all of the dynamic method you convey practical tactics on your web blog and as well as inspire response from some others on the theme so our favorite child is always studying so much. Take pleasure in the remaining portion of the new year. You are doing a pretty cool job.

  14. Pingback: jordan shoes
  15. I am only writing to let you be aware of what a brilliant encounter my daughter found going through your webblog. She even learned so many pieces, which included how it is like to possess an excellent helping style to get other people completely know precisely several extremely tough matters. You truly surpassed our expectations. Many thanks for presenting these precious, safe, educational and even easy tips about the topic to Gloria.

  16. I loѵed as much as you’ll receive carried out rigһt hеre.
    The sketch is tasteful, your authored subject matter stylish.
    nonetheless, you command get got an shakiness over that you wish bе delivеring the following.
    unwell unquestionably come further formerly again since exactly the same nearly a lot often inside case
    you shield this hike.

Dodaj komentarz

Twój adres email nie zostanie opublikowany. Pola, których wypełnienie jest wymagane, są oznaczone symbolem *